La Niña Watch, El Niño 2015-2016 has ended

By: Estrella Z. Gallardo

 

As both oceanic and atmospheric indicators have returned to neutral values, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are now present on the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP)

Meanwhile, a possibility of a La Niña to develop by July-August-September 2016 season is being closely monitored as the tropical Pacific continue to exhibited cooler than average sea surface temperature.

With the current state, La Niña watch is still in effect. A La Niña event is characterized by a persistent cooler than 0.5°C sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Tropical Pacific.

Vicente Milano, PhD Acting PAGASA Administrator in his Advisory said the following:

The weather systems that affected the country during the month of June were the easterlies, ridge of high pressure areas (HPAs), low pressure areas (LPAs), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Southwest (SW) monsoon and the passage of one tropical cyclone named Tropical Depression (TD) “Ambo” (June 26-27) which dissipated into an LPA after it made landfall over Dinalungan Aurora. Moreove, frequent thunderstorms in the afternoon or early evening during the month were also experienced.

Rainfall assessment for the month of June showed that near to above normal rainfPalawan, Central Visayas,all conditions were experienced in Palawan, Central Visayas, most of the eastern sections of the country and most areas of Mindanao. However, the western section of mainland Luzon including most areas in Bicol Region, Southern Panay, Sarangani and Davao Oriental received way below to below normal rainfall. Further analyses showed that three (3) provinces were affected by dry spell (Ilocos Norte, Batanes and Camarines Sur), while six (6) provinces experienced drought conditions in June, namely: Bataan, Albay, Masbate Guimaras, Iloilo and Davao Oriental.

Warmer than average air temperature prevailed over most parts of the country during June 2016.

For the month of July, the weather systems that will likely affect the country are SW monsoon, ITCZ, LPAs and one (1) to three (3) tropical cyclones that may develop and/or enter the Philippine Are of Responsibility (PAR).

Rainfall conditions are predicted to be below normal in most parts of Luzon except for Isabela, Quirino, Quezon and Bicol Region, where near normal rainfall condition is expected. Most areas of Visayas and Mindanao are likely to receive near to above normal rainfall while Western Visayas (except Capiz), Sarangani, Surigao del Norte and Sulu are likely to have below normal rainfall conditions.

In general, slightly warmer than average air temperature are expected in many parts of the country in July. Predicted ranges of temperature are as follows: mountainous Luzon (15-26°C), lowland Luzon (19-37°C), lowland Visayas (18-36°C), mountainous Mindanao (17.0-32.0°C), and lowland Mindanao (21-36°C).

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the developing La Niña and updates shall be issued as appropriate. Meanwhile, concerned agencies are already advised to take precautionary actions to mitigate the adverse impacts of this phenomenon. For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agro meteorology Division (CAD) at telephone number 434-0995 or 435-1675. (PSciJourn MegaManila).

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