By Estrella Z. Gallardo
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronimical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG ASA) The weather and Climate Authority of the country of the Department of Science and Technology (PAGASA-DOST) held a press conference on EL Niño Update at the PAG ASA Amihan Conference Room in Agham Road Diliman Quezon City.
Dr. Flamiano D. Hilaro Officer-in-Charge (OIC) Administration for (R & D), Mr. Anthony R. Lucero OIC-Climate Impacts Monitoring and Prediction Section and other weather experts discussed and answered questions on the El Ñino update presented by them.
Provinces expected to be affected by El Ñino from (August-December 2015)
CAR-Benguet, (October-November),Ifugao (October-December),Mountain Province (October-December); Region 1-Ilocos Sur (RED), (October-November),La Union (RED),(October-November) Pangasinan (RED), (October-November) Region 2-Isabela (August –November),Nueva Viscaya (August –November),Quirino (October –December).
National Capital Region (NCR)- Bulacan,Caloocan (North) Valenzuela, Navotas, Malabon, Quezon City, Caloocan, (South) Marikina, Manila, San Juan, Mandaluyong, Rizal, Pasay,Makati, Taguig,Parañaque, Las Piñas, Cavite, Muntinlupa and Laguna (October to November (RED)
Region 3- Bataan (October-December),Bulacan (October November) (RED)
Aurora (August-November): NCR; Metro Manila, (October-November) (Red)
Region IV –A – Batangas (August-November), Cavite (August-November)
,Laguna (October-November) (Red), Rizal (August-November),Quezon (Augu st-November), Region IV-B-Marinduque (August-December),
Occidental, Mindoro (August-November), Oriental Mindoro (August-November),
Romblon (August-November), Palawan (August-December).
Region 5-Albay (August-November), Camarines Norte (August-December),
Camarines Sur (August-December), Catanduanes (August-November),
Masbate (August-November), Sorsogon (August-November),
Region 6 -Aklan (August-November), Antique (August-November), Capiz (August-November),Guimaras (August-November),Ilo ilo (August-November),
Negros Occidental (August-November),
Region 7-Bohol (August-November).Cebu (August-November),Negros Oriental (August-November),Siquijor (August-November).
Region 8-Biliran (August-November)Eastern Samar (October-December)Leyte (August-November)Northern Samar (September-December)Samar (Western Samar) (September-December)Southern Leyte (August-November)Region 9-
Zamboanga Del Norte,Zamboanga Del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay (August-November) Region 10- Lanao Del Sur,Misamis Occidental (October-December)
Region 11-Compostela Valley Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental (September-November)
Region 12-Cotabato (September-November), South,Cotabato, Sarangani,Sultan Kudarat (August-November)ARMM-Lanao del Sur, Sulu (September-December),Basilan,Maguindanao,Sulu (August-November)
Number of Tropical Cyclone Forecast
June 1 or 2, July 3 to 5, August 2 to 4 September 2 to 4, Ocotber 2 or 3, November 1 or 2, December 0-1 an average of 11 to 16 tropical cyclone.
Weak El Niño has been present in the Tropical Pacific since October 2014. It is expected to intensify into moderate El Niño by August 2015 which may Persist until the end of this year (December 2015). This El Niño event/episode may gradually weaken by May 2016
Onset of the rainy reason is expected to commence by mid-June 2016 onwards, Eleven (11) to 16 tropical cyclones are expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from June-December 2015 Slightly warmer than normal Tropical of an El Niño manifestation is expected during the forecast period.Droughout/Dry Spell outlook for June 2015 is expected: 47 provinces affected by Drought/Dry Spell and likely to improve; and 13 provinces affected by Drought/By spell and likely to continue.
Provinces Affected by Drought (43) Abra, Agusan Del Norte, Agusan Del Sur, Albay, Apayao,Basilan,Bataan,Batangas,Biliran,Bohol,Bukidnon,Bulacan,Camiguin,Cavite,Compostela Valley,Davao,Eastern Samar,,Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union,Lanao Del Norte,Lanao Del Sur,Leyte,Maguindanao,Masbate,Misamis,Occidental,Misamis Oriental,Mountain Province,Negros Oriental,Nueva Ecija, Palawan, Pampanga,Samar, (Western Samar) Sarangani, Siquijor, Sorsogon, South Cotabato,Southern Leyte,Sultan,Kudarat,Sulu,Surigao Del Norte,Surigao Del Sur, Tawi-tawi.
Provinces Affected By Dry Spell (17) Benguet,Capiz,Cebu,Guimaras,Ifugao,Ilo-ilo,Kalinga,Laguna,Negros Occidental,Northern Samar,Quezon,Rizal,Romblon,Tarlac,Zambales,Zamboanga Del Norte,Zamboanga Del Sur.
14 Drought is defined as 3-consecutive months of way below normal rainfall condition (>60% reduction from average rainfall)
15 Dry Spell is defined as 3-consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition (21-60% reduction from average rainfall)
16 Drought condition was assessed using observed rainfall (mm) of October-May 2014/15.(PScijourn MegaManila)